ALMATY – Kazakhstan’s transport sector maintained positive growth in January-July 2026, with the physical volume of transport and warehousing services increasing 7.4% year on year, down from 22.5% a year earlier. The slower pace of expansion, alongside diverging trends across transport modes, may signal a gradual shift in the structure of the country’s logistics system, experts say.
Photo credit: shutterstock
The latest figures from the Bureau of National Statistics’ Aug. 12 report show that Kazakhstan’s transport sector is still expanding, with freight transportation up 0.9% and freight turnover increasing 1.0%. Passenger transportation grew 4.5%, while passenger turnover rose 6.1%.
However, the slower pace of growth does not necessarily indicate a weakening of the sector, according to financial economist Rassul Rysmambetov. He said the comparison with last year’s 22.5% growth should be viewed in the context of a high base effect.
Rassul Rysmambetov, a financial analyst. Photo credit: Kazinform.
“The slowdown from 22.5% to 7.4%, if calculated correctly, can’t be explained as a crisis in transportation. Partially, it is a higher base effect, because last year’s high growth rate cannot be sustained for long,” Rysmambetov told the Astana Times.
He described the current rate as still representing “robust expansion,” with the sources of growth becoming more diversified.
“Now we have domestic trade, road transportation, and Caspian shipping growing instead of high-volume transit and pipeline,” he added.
Different modes reflect different parts of the economy
The overall figures conceal significant differences between individual segments. Road freight transportation increased 6.2% year on year, accounting for 37% of the sector’s total freight volume. Freight turnover in the segment rose 6.5%.
Maritime freight transportation increased 7.2%, while freight turnover grew 18%. Inland waterway transportation recorded particularly rapid growth, with freight volumes increasing 68.5% and freight turnover more than doubling, rising 109.6%.
At the same time, railway freight volumes declined 1.7% to 190.1 million tonnes. Despite the decrease in physical volume, railway freight turnover increased 2.5% to 170.1 billion tonne-kilometres, accounting for 57% of total freight turnover.
The combination of lower volumes and higher turnover may indicate that goods are being transported over longer distances. Pipeline transportation recorded a 2.6% decline in freight volumes, to 148.5 million tonnes, while freight turnover decreased 2.9%.
According to Rysmambetov, however, comparing the performance of different transport modes too directly can be misleading.
“The figures for different transportation means should be compared very cautiously. For example, a 2.6% decline in pipeline transportation reflects changes in oil production and export schedules rather than the same cargo, oil in this case, simply being moved to trucks, ships or rivers,” he said, noting that different modes serve different parts of the economy.
This distinction is important for interpreting the latest statistics. The decline in pipeline transportation coincides with an 8.9% year-on-year decrease in Kazakhstan’s oil production during the first seven months of 2026, meaning that lower pipeline volumes cannot automatically be interpreted as evidence that oil cargo is shifting to alternative modes.
Diversification rather than replacement
The strong growth recorded by maritime and inland waterway transportation nevertheless raises questions about the changing role of alternative logistics routes. Rysmambetov cautioned that the particularly high growth rates in Caspian shipping and inland waterway transportation also partly reflect a low comparison base.
“In general, the country is building diversified transportation options rather than replacing its traditional routes. Railways and pipelines will stay the backbone of the system, while road, maritime and river transport are becoming more and more important as complementary channels,” Rysmambetov said.
This distinction could be important for Kazakhstan’s long-term transport strategy. A more diversified system would not necessarily mean moving away from railways or pipelines, which remain critical for large-scale freight and energy exports. Instead, it would give businesses additional options for moving goods and accessing different markets.
Warehousing emerges as a critical part of the logistics system
The development of transport infrastructure is also creating demand for another part of the logistics chain: warehousing. Evgeny Vinokurov, chief economist of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), said the bank’s research has identified warehousing infrastructure as a major structural issue for Eurasia.
“One of EDB’s flagship studies last year focused on warehousing infrastructure, which the Bank describes as a turning point for Eurasia this decade,” Vinokurov said.
He noted that warehouses should no longer be viewed simply as storage facilities, but as an increasingly sophisticated component of modern logistics. He also identified Almaty, Astana and Shymkent as three major logistics nodes with strong potential for warehouse development.
The development of these nodes could become increasingly important as Kazakhstan seeks to strengthen its role as a regional transit and distribution hub. Greater cargo flows alone, however, do not guarantee greater economic benefits. The country needs sufficient infrastructure to store, process and redistribute goods efficiently.
Growth is becoming more diversified
The passenger segment also remained broadly positive. Road passenger transportation increased 4.6% year on year, with 1.11 billion passengers transported during the period. Passenger turnover grew 6.8%.
Air passenger transportation increased 2.8%, with 9.2 million passengers transported and passenger turnover rising 8.1%. Maritime passenger transportation increased 138.3%, while inland waterway passenger transportation grew 7.0%.
Railway passenger transportation, meanwhile, declined 3.5% to 11.1 million passengers, although passenger turnover edged up 0.1%. The decline was less pronounced than the 6.3% decrease recorded during the same period last year.
The mixed performance reinforces the broader pattern: Kazakhstan’s transport sector is not moving uniformly in one direction.
For now, experts caution against interpreting the latest figures as a wholesale transformation of the transport system. The data instead point to a sector that is continuing to grow while gradually developing a broader range of logistics channels and infrastructure around its traditional backbone.
